Horumar

03.06.2025 — Mogadishu, Somalia

Reports have emerged that State President of Puntland, Said Abdullahi Deni held a closed-door meeting with Somaliland’s new leader, Abdirahman Irro in the Kenyan capital. While details remain scarce, the length and secrecy of the meeting have raised concerns over the broader implications for Somalia’s federal integrity especially given recent geopolitical maneuvering by federal member states and foreign actors.

UAE’s Shadow in Somalia’s Political Arena

The timing of the meeting is particularly striking. Both Deni and Jubaland’s President Ahmed Madobe had just returned from official visits to the United Arab Emirates, a country whose role in Somalia’s internal affairs has been described by critics as devious and destabilising. The UAE has long been accused of backing parallel political agendas that undermine the unity and sovereignty of the Somali state often working through regional proxies rather than engaging the federal government in Mogadishu. A theme commonly seen in UAE’s activities in other Arab League countries such as Yemen, Libya and Sudan.

Tensions Over the National Conference

Although no official statement has been released, Garowe has snubbed Villa Somalia’s attempt to bring together Federal and opposition leaders for a national conference. President Deni has previously laid down two conditions: that he be granted direct bilateral talks with President Mohamud, and that Ahmed Madobe also be present at any national forum. These demands were previously rejected by Villa Somalia and it appears unlikely it would u-turn unless Western powers apply more political and financial pressure.

The SSC-Khatumo Factor and An Attempt to Shift the Balance of Power

Another layer to the unfolding political drama is the situation in Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC). The administration in Hargeisa is actively seeking to curtail the military capacity of SSC-Khatumo forces, who have recently made significant territorial gains in the disputed region. Adding fuel to the fire, SSC President Firdhiye has joined Hassan Sheikh’s new party – a move seen by Deni as a betrayal, prompting him to consider steps to limit SSC’s political influence at the federal level.

Indeed, the inclusion of SSC Khaatumo as a federal state would tilt the balance of power to Villa Somalia as the administration could argue the inclusion of all Somali clans during national decision-making. A move condemned by opponents of the central government.

Within Puntland, however, the situation is far from unified. Elements within the state still support SSC’s inclusion as part of Puntland under its original constitutional arrangement, deepening internal fractures and complicating Deni’s efforts to enforce a coherent policy.

Economic Pressures and Isolation

Both Puntland and Somaliland have suffered economically from the conflict in the north, particularly due to the closure of major trade routes between the federal states. This economic pressure is believed to be another motivating factor for both leaders to explore alternative political partnerships, including with actors who challenge the federal order from both inside and outside Somalia.

Conclusion

The reported meeting between Deni and Irro may appear informal or insignificant at first glance. But when viewed in the wider context of regional discontent, foreign interference, and political fragmentation, it represents yet another warning sign for Somalia’s fragile federal system.

With trust eroding between Villa Somalia and key federal states, and foreign actors like the UAE continuing to manipulate divisions, Somalia risks backsliding into a fragmented patchwork of competing authorities, undermining hard-won progress toward stability and state-building, especially as elections are looming and political tensions soar.